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2024 Points and Travel Fears
My, how things have changed since last Halloween. Last year, I was surprised I got through the first two Terrifier movies; now, I’m oddly disappointed I haven’t gotten around to the third yet. Perhaps I’ve been too busy enjoying a few of these favorites the past several weeks. Much has changed in our dynamic hobby since last fall, including the areas I’m concerned about. (“Fears” is probably a strong word, but it fits this seasonal post. Work with me.) Let’s take a look my 2024 points and travel fears and what I’m on the watch for this Halloween.
Hilton Cert Devaluation
Recently, things have been going good with Hilton and their program – maybe too good. Among other things, Hilton’s brought on several attractive brands, to the point where some are questioning if the brand has overtaken Hyatt. Since I’m a long time Hilton loyalist more than any other chain, I personally don’t like all this of focus on their program. It’s a silly, selfish feeling, like when one of my favorite bands gets too popular.
The strengthening chain could make negative changes. I’m not overly concerned about devaluations in terms of increasing amounts of required points per award night. Most programs, including Hilton Honors, routinely do that. I feel like Hilton is more apt to limit their outstanding free night certificates. It’s already a bit tougher to pick up buckets of them now, thanks to the Amex Hilton Business card changes. And hits to the quality of the certs may be next. Currently, they can be used at most any property in the Hilton Honors portfolio (outside of a few exclusions where my family and I don’t have interest). Plus, they can be used on any night of the week, something the older versions couldn’t.
Hilton could target either or both of those angles, reverting back to day of the week limitations or shaving off where the certs can be used – or something else I’m not thinking of right now. Watch this space.
AA Loyalty Points Honeymoon Ending
The first few years of the American Airlines Loyalty Points program have been remarkable. This initiative was diabolically genius of the carrier, creating loyalty seemingly overnight where many had zero (including with this writer). I’ve enjoyed the extra miles, recognition, upgrades, and freebies along the way, as many of you have. Undoubtedly, the airline has enjoyed the extra attention and cash money coming their way.
Now that they’ve sucked the masses in, I’m betting on considerable, if not drastic, changes to the AA Loyalty Points program within the next few months. Perhaps qualification thresholds will increase, or maybe less likely, they’ll add a new official tier. I’m more confident that the Loyalty Point Rewards scheme will see tweaks. Here are a few possible downturns:
- Eliminating certain Loyalty Point Reward options
- Loyalty Point Reward devaluations, such as fewer bonus redeemable miles
- Inflating Loyalty Point Reward thresholds
Of course, there’s plenty else I’m not considering. Regardless, I increasingly feel like something ominous is on the horizon.
Things Are Too Easy
Point-earning methods come and go. They also run the gamut of very niche to very popular. Many tried and true, well-known methods are still around and lucrative for those who put in the time and effort. Other unique options quietly become widespread and can lead to elimination or devaluation (in one way or another) of those methods. Along the way, I feel many options have made things too easy.
This artifact can have dangerous repercussions. Our views on value and effort can become distorted. Mental and physical complacency can set in. It’s natural to heavily rely on predictable, repeatable options, but what happens if or when they disappear? This is an evergreen consideration in our hobby, but I feel that it applies now more than ever.
2024 Points and Travel Fears – Conclusion
I’m sharing a few less fears this year than last, but I feel they apply just as much, if not more than 2023’s. And plenty of last year’s are still valid. It’s on us as points and travel hobbyists to look at this as a game of chess more than checkers. I encourage you to look several steps ahead and develop contingencies for when things inevitably change. Share with trusted individuals for mutual benefit.
What points and travel concerns do you have right now?
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In this hobby, I don’t expect things to get better when looking into my crystal ball. I cancelled the Hilton Business card when they eliminated the free night. On the personal card, I had a lot of home improvement projects and found a local car dealer that let me put $40K spend on a couple of credit cards , so I easily obtained the $15K & $60K FNC with Hilton plus Diamond status and $60K spending with the Chase Premium IHG card which gave me a $100.00 account credit (when I hit $20K) and Diamond status through 2025.
When I come back down to Earth in 2025 with my spending, my goals will be to spend enough for the Hilton $15K FNC and $60K for IHG Diamond status.
Amex seems to be getting stingier with their benefits while Chase puts up some pretty good offers but I’m over 5/24, so ineligible.
Between my wife and I, we’ll still get 4 IHG, 1 Hilton and 1 Marriott FNC for 2025 which I have no problem using.
As far as flying is concerned, I’m never going to qualify for any type of elite status, so this is of no interest to me anymore. In 2025, I don’t see things getting crazy with point inflation. My goal is to fly wherever and whenever(preferably in Business or First class) I want paying as close to zero dollars as I can. I think I’m pretty comfortable saying that I’ll have no problem doing this for years to come.
I agree on AAdvantage. They’re already making noises about some pretty intensely bad changes for high level elites. Considering how badly award miles have gotten nerfed, taking away free upgrades would remove the only major benefit left for engaged loyalty members with status.
I haven’t really done much ms so while I’m interested I don’t really know how to start.
I’m not so sure about Hilton doing bad things to us. They removed the FNC’s for the business card spend so that torpedoed my interest until late next year when I’ll get a couple of certificates and a couple more early in 2026. The FNC certificates removal from the business cards may be enough for them to hold off on other changes.