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IATA Says that Global Air Travel Won’t Recover till 2024
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has revised its outlook for the recovery of global air travel and now it does not expect for it to get back to normal until 2024. The previous projection had stated that air travel would rebound in 2023.
IATA, which represents 290 airlines, blamed the slow recovery in a the lack of consumer confidence, decline in business travel, and the new coronavirus spikes in the United States and abroad.
The new projections say that for 2020, global passenger numbers are expected to decline by 55% compared to 2019, worsened from the April forecast of 46%. Passenger numbers are expected to rise 62% in 2021, but will still be down almost 30% compared to pre-COVID travel.
“Passenger traffic hit bottom in April, but the strength of the upturn has been very weak. What improvement we have seen has been domestic flying. International markets remain largely closed. Consumer confidence is depressed and not helped by the UK’s weekend decision to impose a blanket quarantine on all travelers returning from Spain. And in many parts of the world infections are still rising. All of this points to a longer recovery period and more pain for the industry and the global economy,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO, in a statement.
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Even 2024 seems optimistic. With luck, the decline in air travel will be permanent. Estimates that 90% of “business travel” can be accomplished with online tools. Air travel SHOULD be expensive, to reflect its costs to the common: noise, fuel cycle, pollution, manufacture costs, CARBON footprint, use of valuable near-urban land, and many ancillary costs (food waste, road construction/maintenance).