So Much Has Changed In The Last 24 Hours – Where Do We Go From Here?
Unless you passed out from exhaustion yesterday afternoon and just woke up you are aware that the country / world has been turned on its side a little bit in the last day. I wrote a post on Monday that said what I fear most with the coronavirus is fear itself. Man does that seem so long ago and so outdated. Don’t get me wrong I still think fear will be bigger than the virus itself but I think everyone has a little bit of fear or doubt these days. So much has changed from then to now. As COVID-19 spreads adjustments have been made and some are pretty drastic so let’s take a look.
What Has Changed?
Even though it feels like everything has changed that isn’t really the case, most people still went to work today and most kids still went to school. For some reason it still feels different today though. Here is what has been implemented in the last day or so:
- The WHO labeled COVID-19 a pandemic.
- People have been encouraged to work from home in many industries wherever and whenever that is possible.
- Many colleges have switched to online classes only and shut down the campus for the rest of the semester. Or they have extended spring break for several weeks etc.
- Pretty much any event with over 100 people has been banned or encouraged to not be held. Many festivals etc. have been canceled or moved to the fall.
- March Madness will be played without fans in the stands.
- The NBA has suspended the season after a player or two came down with the virus.
- This is the most jaw dropping change. There is a 30-day ban on foreigners who have been in the 26 countries that make up the European Union’s Schengen Area in the previous two weeks. The limits take effect Friday at midnight. American citizens and permanent legal residents and their families will be exempt from the ban. There could still be extended screening for citizens and legal residents before they reenter the US though.
I am sure there are more changes to come over the next few days/weeks.
What Does This Mean For Us Travelers?
I canceled my March Madness trip to Vegas earlier in the day yesterday, before all of this broke. The writing seemed to be on the wall and I wanted to get my calls in before it escalated too much further. I expect today’s phone lines to be extremely busy so I am glad I did. Now I have a pretty decent sized Frontier credit I need to use within 90 days, which seems pretty archaic at this point, but we shall see how that goes. I plan on booking it as far out as possible when things should be settled down.
What does this mean for travel as a whole? My personal belief is that any travel that is not essential should be canceled. It isn’t because I think people that travel will almost certainly get sick or anything like that. But it does put people in a close proximity to one another which isn’t the best thing right now. And it makes tracking movements of people and who they came in contact with, should they get sick, that much more difficult.
I am not naive enough to think that these changes will stop the spread of COVID-19 and that isn’t what this is about. The goal of these changes is to slow the spread of it so that the medical system can handle the influx of patients. If we went on as normal the spread would grow exponentially and hospital beds would be overfilled like they are in Italy and Asia. Hopefully these changes keep the spread to levels that our hospitals, doctors and nurses can handle. Most people will recover from the disease without issue but if the hospitals are over capacity then people that need medical attention to pull through could slip through the cracks. That is something we can all help with by being responsible.
What Does The Future Look Like?
I don’t have a crystal ball but I will take some educated guesses. Share your thoughts / predictions in the comments below.
It appears a recession is upon us. How long it will last is anyone’s guess but you can not shut down this many things and restrict travel and not have one. I assume there will be government assistance programs to help businesses that are affected, especially the over-leveraged airline industry.
Travel will crawl to a standstill over the next few weeks / months. I think most people will cancel travel that is non essential in the near future. My Europe trip in May is looking like a pipe dream at this point. I am still holding out hope for our Hawaii trip at the end of July though.
Hanging out with friends and family will be somewhat restricted for the next few weeks, especially visiting anyone who is elderly. These are decisions we will likely make not out of fear for ourselves but out of respect for others.
What Does This Mean For Miles & Points?
Since the main topic of this site is miles & points I figured I should have a section based on it. In the past recessions have led to increased welcome offers and easy points. Will that happen once again or are banks too wise to our game these days? Only time will tell but I think it will fall somewhere in the middle. My guess is that the annoying application rules will stay the same but offers will be elevated to entice new card holders.
It is a pretty safe bet that our accounts will get a healthy boost over the next few months if not simply from cancellations themselves. That is one of the perks of using points, the lenient cancellation policies. I of course booked a non refundable stay in Prague since the points options were too expensive. That looks like a $300 error on my part.
Even though our balances will likely grow from cancellations and refunds I think earning will take a hit. We won’t be spending as much for a little while. With the lack of travel, dining out and activities happening over the next few weeks / months our natural spending patterns will dip. Earning points through gift cards and other avenues will likely slow down for many as well as they want to make less frequent trips to stores etc. The fact that many good points earning options online have dried up hits a little harder now too.
Having said that, this too shall pass and things will be back to normal before we know it.
Final Thoughts
I went to Walmart last night at 10 PM because they showed stock of some hand sanitizer and wipes etc. that have been near impossible to find. There were some other things we needed as well and to be honest I was curious to check the pulse of the place. The streets where mostly a ghost town on the way to the store and the store itself was pretty empty. Both the shelves and in terms of customers. Most anything dealing with paper or cleaning was gone. There was a somber feel in the store overall, I can’t really explain it but it was unlike anything I have experienced before. They did end up having a new shipment of hand sanitizer and people swarmed the workers like junkies looking for a fix, it was quite the sight to see.
Like my Walmart shopping trip this is a weird place we find ourselves in right now. This is unlike anything I have experienced in my lifetime. I would say 9/11 is the closest thing to it because of the uncertainty and doubt we feel right now in the recent aftermath of these changes. This is different though because it involves the whole world and it is unlikely to go away anytime soon. There will be vaccines made and treatments developed that will reduce the numbers greatly but that is a year or two off. Until that time we are left wondering how do we handle this and what does the future look like? The truth is no one knows at this point but if we work together we will figure it out, that is something (the only thing?) I can guarantee.
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I whole heartily agree with your comments! Nice piece.
Well done, Mark! I’m on lockdown in Italy and everything has changed here in the last two days also. I’m in Sicily so not too scared but hoping to leave this weekend. I could go to US (family) or Thailand, where I live, and chose Thailand because what’s going on in America terrifies me.
Yeah getting trapped away from home would be my biggest fear if I was in the middle of travel when everything went down. Stay safe Christine!
I respectfully disagree. Not much has changed.
People saw this coming miles, miles away.
Games and events will be suspended, school will close, famous people will be infected, and unfortunately, some might even die of COVID-19.
I think it’s unfortunate that many people (not saying you are one of them, but I personally know many) only pay attention when their personal lives are affected.
A friend of mine jumped from “just a flu” league to “WTF just happened” yesterday. All it took was for the NBA season to be suspended.
Is it a surprise that NBA was suspended? Absolutely not.
Did COVID-19 become a pandemic Yesterday? No, it showed all signs of a pandemic already in Ferbruary, if not late January.
I’m not here to say “I told you so” because that achieves nothing. I just hope that people can start paying more attention of the gravity of this disease, because it’s a team effort. It needs everyone to be alert to bring this to an end.
I think you hit the nail on the head though – what has changed is people’s perception of the issue. That changes a lot of things. The stock market is run on perceptions, people’s decisions are based on perceptions. As those change so goes everything else. Nothing has changed with the virus, no doubt, it is what it has always been. But everything else has changed as people’s perceptions of it has changed. It is always hard to weed through the misinformation in things like these so I am not going to beat anyone up over it. And just like all things there are early adopters and late adopters but most people land in the middle. I don’t think we can expect anything different in a situation like this.
Really well written, thank you! I was talking with my wife last night about how this has a 9/11 type feel. The world just seems a little different today.
It does for sure.
+1 – I was just thinking today that I haven’t been this unsettled and scared since 9/11…
Nice job
Thanks Eric
I mean, isn’t this how every Dystopian novel begins? It is crazy the extent this has escalated. And I’m really glad we cancelled our spring break trip 2 weeks ago. I was upset about it then and wondered if we were overreacting (the whole internet basically told me I was) but it really was the best decision overall.
Yup it has escalated so quickly. Italy is at the point that they are choosing to not treat people unlikely to recover because they are over capacity. When you hear that it is time to put some changes into action imo.
I have jet lag and I fell asleep and 3pm yesterday and woke up at 6am. Omg.
That would be pretty shocking to wake up to for sure 🙁